Okay, okay, you guys got me. I wasn't gonna write about it, and then apparently I was, despite really wanting to get something written here on the government switch in Canada last week. So for the time being, I guess I'm going to just crawl out of my hole and ponder aloud about yesterday's piece of news - "piece" being singular, of course, because it's not like anybody noticed anything else going on.
I have a bit more difficulty coming up with something new on this, considering Tang and the Fourth Man have both already have their somewhat extensive says. So I'm basically going to throw my two cents around on a bunch of issues, rather than doing my usual thing and trying to at least pretend to come up with a single point. I do gotta warn you guys that this will be rather more cynical and tinhatty than most of my posts, but it is a subject about which I'm a bit embittered.
First, we have the latest bits of news about Saddam Hussein's capture, which is obviously going to be the only thing folks are much interested in for some time. Those articles are mainly a few minutes' poking through Google News and my main other news sources, but should give something of a cross-section of basic ideas about how people are reporting the news. The basic idea, however, seems to be that Bush is going to want an Iraqi trial, or at least an "Iraqi" trial.
I've got my reservations.
As Tang said, the odds of a truly international trial are nonexistant, considering Bush's vehemnt opposition of the very concept of international law. The American stance, despite wishes from other countries (including Canada and Kuwait) for an international trial, is that Hussein will be tried in Iraq, by Iraqis. Given the political circumstances in Iraq right now, this essentially means that the trial will be an American one, with the evidence and rulings largely predetermined. A number of announcments surrounding the capture have been dismayingly convinient - the hinting at documents hinting that Hussein runs the entire resistance, for instance, or the same-day DNA testing results "proving" it's him (this process usually takes days) - are pointing to Washington being rather more opportunistic than they should be being about this.
Now as to the conduct of this trial? I don't buy that it will be anything other than a closed, or at least heavily-restricted, situation, probably on a mix of assorted security reasons. Politically, the current administration in the United States absolutely cannot afford to have this guy speaking in view of the press. All he would have to do to create serious troubles in Washington is simply tell the truth about how he began assembling his chemical weapons stockpile, for instance. The common tie-in used by the antiwar movement is the obvious and documented fact that Donald Rumsfeld shook hands with the man while arranging arms deals in the past - he obviously can't deny knowing about the origin of some of the WMD stockpiles while under oath. There are going to be other issues going back into the eighties and earlier, when Hussein was a close ally of the United States, as well as more recent events like Haliburton connections before the war. I'd comment on those, but perhaps Tang or Kat would be more qualified to when they find the time over the next week.
Basically, the situation's going to be similar to that of the Milosevic trial, in that you're going to have an obviously-brilliant and politically astute person defending themselves in a courtroom setting. Although Hussein is being rather less cooperative than Milosevic in talking at all, I expect any public showings of his trial to be too dangerous to the prosecution - like Milosevic, who methodically ran rings around them for a few weeks - that the trial will have to be closed to save face for both the US and the provisional Iraqi government.
Of course, this brings up its own problems. As Tang stated, just about anything the US does over the course of this trial will reflect badly upon it. Anything less than a trial before the international courts - which Bush will not and, electorally, cannot allow - will be rightfully viewed as a farce; a closed trial will be seen as even more of one. A death sentence will make a martyr of someone who is currently at least somewhat disgraced in the eyes of his subjects, and worsen the existing attacks - which seem to have increased slightly. A life sentence will bring up the problem of what to do with the guy - just where are you going to put him to avoid creating a shrine to his followers (or simply the United States' opponents!) and avoid some sort of vigilante actions? Of course, Bush could just have him permenantly locked up someplace, quietly and without mention, but that would simply bring more attention to the fact that that's already the Justice Department's stance on suspected terrorists, and some hundreds or thousands of people have already quietly disappeared in a similar manner.
Hussein has both been torn from power and captured, which in my opinion is as it should be - the guy is a True Bastard, something his very laudable accomplishments with modernizing and educating Iraq are unable to erase. However, his being out of power does not mean he's out of the way politically. The man, broken though he is, is liable to be able to cause great trouble for the United States and the interim administration in Iraq, almost regardless of what is done with him. Unless Bush and company step very, very carefully, I don't believe they will be able to manage this in a way which will not make the situation worse in one way or another, whether it be in foreign policy or at the polls next fall.
This isn't just a matter of "waah, the world and the unAmerican traitors hate us" as much as the fact that Washington fucked up big time in this entire war. As I heard someone say the other day, I can't feel good when bad uses good for bad, and that's the general stance of the world community. I rejoice every time a Hussein or a Milosevic is deposed, although when they are the excuse, rather than the cause, of other countries' deposing them, I can't not feel apprehension.
However, Washington chose this war, whatever they may claim. They charged in half-cocked, won it, and are speedily losing the peace, both in Iraq and abroad. Unfortunately, things are going to be stuck for some time. They've made their bed....
Posted by zibblsnrt at December 15, 2003 11:43 AM