Live from the Nuke Free Zone

Rita downgraded to Cat 4, projected to possibly be Cat 3 (a la Alicia) by the time it makes landfall. Turned a bit steeper north, so it will now hit east of Houston/Galveston and hopefully spare them the stronger sea-to-land winds.

There are scattered indications — anecdotal, but present — that despite advance activity, a disconnected population of the very poor were unable to evacuate when ordered. Some appear to be choosing not to go (probably not as bad a decision for a homeowner in Houston waiting for Rita as one in New Orleans waiting for Katrina, but the homeless have their own problems during storms). Cold calculation, of course, suggests that the most efficient evacuation order will still leave a small group behind; the question is the effort to which society is willing to go to communicate with, transport, and shelter the population in question — the very real price tag governments have to put on human life.

The biggest mess of the evacuation, unexpectedly enough, appears to be on the roads: people are literally running out of gas idling on the freeway in 100-mile-long traffic jams, from which other drivers are pulling out and heading home rather than be caught on the freeway when the storm hits. Let’s see how that one has played out tomorrow morning; there’s word the mayor is trying to arrange military fuel drops along the road. (Heck, by tomorrow if they’re still there they’ll need food and water in those traffic jams. Not to mention bathrooms.)