Live from the Nuke Free Zone

First, a bit of an update to the last part: the latest polling numbers from Haaretz show Kadima getting 36 seats, Labour getting 18, and Likud getting 14. A ridiculous 22% of those polled are undecided, which is even more insane when you consider than the elections are on Tuesday. That 22% represents 28 seats in the Parlaiment, so which way the undecideds break could have a huge aftermath on the post-election process of forming a government.

I suspect that most of the undecideds are people who are trying to choose between Kadima and some other party (Labour, Likud, or one of the minor parties) they’ve tended to associate themselves with. If even 1/3 of the undecideds (or 9 seats worth) break for Kadima, that would give them a dominant 45 seats, which would really put them in a position of strength when it came time to form a governing coalition. The weakness of Likud is also of interest, since they would be the main opposition force to a Kadima-lead government, in all likelihood.

(A correction from last time: In Part I, I stated that, unlike Germany, an Israeli party only needs 1/120 of the vote to get seats in Parlaiment. I was mistaken; apparently, there is a 2% minimum threshold, which corresponds to 2 MPs. Amusingly, I got the mistaken information from one of my polisci professors. He’s from Israel. Go figure.)
And now, onto the main body of the piece:

Shinui: Posed to be the biggest loser of this round of elections. It won 15 seats in the 2003 Knesset elections, it’s best ever showing, and seemed poised to become a long-term major player in Israeli politics. Just 3 years later, the latest polling shows it failing to win even a single seat.
On most issues, Shinui is basically a center-right party, favoring a free-market economic approach and a Kadima-esque approach to the Palestinian situation. Their defining political characteristic is as a secular party.

Further explanation is required on that point. Unlike the US, Israel does not have separation of church (well, synagogue) and state. Judaism is the official religion, and plays a rather large role in government. Orthodox Judaism is granted oversight over things like family law, and there is a separate body of religious law that covers those areas. So, for example, Orthodox Judaism doesn’t recognize conversions done by Reform or Conservative rabbis (the two main groups in the US). So, officially, people who have thus converted aren’t considered Jews by the Israeli government. Orthodox Judaism also doesn’t allow Jews to marry non-Jew; as such, the Israeli government does not give marraige licenses to such couples. If they go out of the country and get married (as many do), their marriage will be legally recognized in accordance with various international treaties, but it’s still pretty damn ridiculous.

Shinui’s platform calls for a clear separation between church and state, the rule of secular law, and an end to state financial support for religious authorities (which eats up a decent chunk of the Israeli budget, much to the consternation of a lot of people in Israel.) And Shinui’s message was obviously gaining some momentum, given their impressive showing in ‘03.

However, a combination of corruption, infighting, and some spectacularly ill-considered comments from the party leadership that bordered on bashing religious Jews has severely eroded support for Shinui, to the point where all but 3 of the Shinui MPs have officially left the party.

Meretz-Yachad: Left wing party. Secularist, like Shinui, only not so dumb as to openly insult religious elements within the state. Strong supporters of the welfare state. Mostly notable for being just about the most dovish party on Palestinian issues, calling for complete evacuation from the settlements, a Palestinian state along the 1948 armistice lines, and opposition (at least by a significant faction within the party) to just about all IDF counter-terrorist actions within the Palestinian Territories.

Those fairly radical positions on the Palestinian issue have severely limited Meretz-Yachad’s potential appeal, since the idea of returning to the 1948 armistice lines (and thus relinquishing full control over the Western Wall, the holiest site in Judiasm) is anathema to the vast majority of the Israeli public. Large segments of the Israeli public also support most (but not all, by any means) of the IDF’s operations in the Palestinian territories, which a good chunk of Meretz-Yachud regards as immoral.

Currently, Meretz-Yachud has 6 seats in the Knesset, and the latest polling shows them getting about the same number in the upcoming elections.

This is longer than I expected, so I’m going to finish this up tomorrow with a discussion of the right-wing religious parties, as well as the Arab parties and my view on likely coalitions.